INTU
Intuit Inc.
$354.90
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 52.5% below fair value
You pay
$354.90
Bear
$500.03
Fair
$746.39
Bull
$1,009.47
Bear
$500.03
+40.9%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$746.39
+110.3%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$1,009.47
+184.4%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
13.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
13.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
3.4%
vs 13.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (45 analysts)
$379.68
Divergence from AlphaVal
97%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $746.39 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 45% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $379.68 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 97% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions