INTU
Intuit Inc.
$332.70
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 54.4% below fair value
You pay
$332.70
Bear
$488.82
Fair
$729.50
Bull
$986.52
Bear
$488.82
+46.9%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$729.50
+119.3%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$986.52
+196.5%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
13.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
12.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
2.8%
vs 13.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (45 analysts)
$398.10
Divergence from AlphaVal
83%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $729.50 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 45% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $398.10 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 83% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions