INTU
Intuit Inc.
$291.09
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 61.0% below fair value
You pay
$291.09
Bear
$383.37
Fair
$745.74
Bull
$1,220.32
Bear
$383.37
+31.7%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$745.74
+156.2%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$1,220.32
+319.2%
28% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (22% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
47%
Implied Market Multiple
17.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.4%
vs 21.8% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $441.67 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $745.74 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 51% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $441.67 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 98% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions