INSW
International Seaways, Inc.
$119.82
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 24.6% below fair value
You pay
$119.82
Bear
$98.76
Fair
$158.89
Bull
$225.66
Bear
$98.76
-17.6%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$158.89
+32.6%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$225.66
+88.3%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
14.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
23.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.3%
vs 14.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$112.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
41%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $158.89 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $112.33 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 41% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions