INSP
Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.
$43.84
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 38.4% below fair value
You pay
$43.84
Bear
$54.99
Fair
$71.12
Bull
$87.07
Bear
$54.99
+25.4%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$71.12
+62.2%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$87.07
+98.6%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
12.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $75.85 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $71.12 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions