INSP
Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.
$70.00
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 619.1% above fair value
You pay
$70.00
Bear
$9.70
Fair
$9.73
Bull
$9.77
Bear
$9.70
-86.1%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$9.73
-86.1%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$9.77
-86.0%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
5762.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
92.5%
vs 7.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (28 analysts)
$63.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
85%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $9.73 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 90% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $63.00 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 85% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions