INSE
Inspired Entertainment, Inc.
$7.23
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 59.6% below fair value
You pay
$7.23
Bear
$10.80
Fair
$17.88
Bull
$24.67
Bear
$10.80
+49.4%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$17.88
+147.3%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$24.67
+241.2%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
13.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
3.2%
vs 9.1% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $18.75 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $17.88 per share.
Warnings
This company spends 15% of revenue on big investments like data centers and infrastructure, mostly for growth. We adjusted the cash flow figure to only subtract the upkeep costs, giving a clearer picture of true profitability.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions