INOD
Innodata Inc.
$95.48
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 336.5% above fair value
You pay
$95.48
Bear
$19.77
Fair
$21.88
Bull
$23.80
Bear
$19.77
-79.3%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$21.88
-77.1%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$23.80
-75.1%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
30%
Implied Market Multiple
111.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $56.50 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $21.88 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 35% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $56.50 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 77% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions