INOD
Innodata Inc.
$62.04
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 369.2% above fair value
You pay
$62.04
Bear
$11.95
Fair
$13.22
Bull
$14.38
Bear
$11.95
-80.7%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$13.22
-78.7%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$14.38
-76.8%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
4.8%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
30%
Implied Market Multiple
71.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
28.2%
vs 4.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$120.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
89%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $13.22 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 35% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $120.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 89% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions