INOD
Innodata Inc.
$55.89
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 61.6% above fair value
You pay
$55.89
Bear
$31.25
Fair
$34.58
Bull
$37.61
Bear
$31.25
-44.1%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$34.58
-38.1%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$37.61
-32.7%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
30%
Implied Market Multiple
64.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
26.7%
vs 4.8% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $120.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $34.58 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 35% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $120.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 89% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions