INIO
INNIO N.V. Ordinary Shares
$21.35
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 37.4% below fair value
You pay
$21.35
Bear
$15.15
Fair
$34.12
Bull
$60.38
Bear
$15.15
-29.0%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$34.12
+59.8%
25% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$60.38
+182.8%
32% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
24.6%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (25% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
35.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
18.8%
vs 24.6% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 25% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $34.12 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions