INGR
Ingredion Incorporated
$97.56
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 49.0% below fair value
You pay
$97.56
Bear
$157.45
Fair
$191.18
Bull
$224.92
Bear
$157.45
+61.4%
$12.70 × 14x P/E
Fair
$191.18
+96.0%
$12.70 × 17x P/E
Bull
$224.92
+130.5%
$12.70 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
7.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $117.00 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $191.18 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $105.93 (below our primary estimate by 51%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $117.00 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 85% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples