INGR
Ingredion Incorporated
$96.31
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 49.3% below fair value
You pay
$96.31
Bear
$156.52
Fair
$190.06
Bull
$223.60
Bear
$156.52
+62.5%
$11.18 × 14x P/E
Fair
$190.06
+97.3%
$11.18 × 17x P/E
Bull
$223.60
+132.2%
$11.18 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
11.18$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
8.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$109.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
74%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $11.18, the base-case value is $190.06 per share. DDM cross-check: $93.87.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $93.87 (below our primary estimate by 51%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $109.50 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 74% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples