INDB
Independent Bank Corp.
$78.82
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 21.6% above fair value
You pay
$78.82
Bear
$45.39
Fair
$64.84
Bull
$84.30
Bear
$45.39
-42.4%
ROTCE 6.6% → 0.55x TBV
Fair
$64.84
-17.7%
ROTCE 8.8% → 1.01x TBV
Bull
$84.30
+7.0%
ROTCE 10.1% → 1.29x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (8.8%) vs. cost of equity (8.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.62x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $93.33 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $64.84 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $93.33 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly