INDB
Independent Bank Corp.
$77.02
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 39.2% above fair value
You pay
$77.02
Bear
$38.74
Fair
$55.34
Bull
$71.95
Bear
$38.74
-49.7%
ROTCE 6.6% → 0.55x TBV
Fair
$55.34
-28.1%
ROTCE 8.8% → 1.01x TBV
Bull
$71.95
-6.6%
ROTCE 10.1% → 1.29x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
8.8%
8.7%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (8.8%) vs. cost of equity (8.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.59x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$93.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
41%
Summary
With ROTCE of 8.8% vs. 8.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.01x on $48.53 tangible book, implying $55.34 per share. DDM cross-check: $63.13.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $93.33 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly