INCY
Incyte Corporation
$124.75
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 36.2% above fair value
You pay
$124.75
Bear
$91.61
Fair
$91.61
Bull
$96.62
Bear
$91.61
-26.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$91.61
-26.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$96.62
-22.5%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
18.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.0%
vs 3.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (44 analysts)
$130.07
Divergence from AlphaVal
30%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $91.61 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $130.07 (from 44 analysts). Our estimate is 30% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions