IMO
Imperial Oil Limited
$128.48
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 45.2% above fair value
You pay
$128.48
Bear
$54.98
Fair
$88.51
Bull
$128.97
Bear
$54.98
-57.2%
FCF $2839M × 12x
Fair
$88.51
-31.1%
FCF $3340M × 16x
Bull
$128.97
+0.4%
FCF $3841M × 20x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $44.99 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $88.51 per share.
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $44.99 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 129% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7102 USD per CAD.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential