IMO
Imperial Oil Limited
$133.43
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 27.5% above fair value
You pay
$133.43
Bear
$64.98
Fair
$104.61
Bull
$152.44
Bear
$64.98
-51.3%
FCF $2845M × 12x
Fair
$104.61
-21.6%
FCF $3347M × 16x
Bull
$152.44
+14.2%
FCF $3849M × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
16.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$44.99
Divergence from AlphaVal
133%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 16x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $104.61 per share. Range: $64.98 (bear) to $152.44 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $44.99 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 133% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7117 USD per CAD.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential