IMAX
IMAX Corporation
$39.25
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 0.1% below fair value
You pay
$39.25
Bear
$28.32
Fair
$39.28
Bull
$50.07
Bear
$28.32
-27.8%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$39.28
+0.1%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$50.07
+27.6%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
23.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.0%
vs 10.1% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $47.40 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $39.28 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 77% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions