IMAX
IMAX Corporation
$52.31
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 2.6% above fair value
You pay
$52.31
Bear
$33.04
Fair
$51.01
Bull
$70.34
Bear
$33.04
-36.8%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$51.01
-2.5%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$70.34
+34.5%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
13.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
29.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.9%
vs 13.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$57.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
11%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $51.01 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 77% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions