IMAX
IMAX Corporation
$51.64
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 1.8% below fair value
You pay
$51.64
Bear
$33.67
Fair
$52.59
Bull
$73.16
Bear
$33.67
-34.8%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$52.59
+1.8%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$73.16
+41.7%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
14.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
28.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.8%
vs 14.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (25 analysts)
$51.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
3%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $52.59 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 77% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions