IMAX
IMAX Corporation
$39.12
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 7.4% below fair value
You pay
$39.12
Bear
$29.08
Fair
$42.25
Bull
$55.73
Bear
$29.08
-25.7%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$42.25
+8.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$55.73
+42.5%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
23.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $45.43 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $42.25 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 77% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions