IIIV
i3 Verticals, Inc.
$16.92
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 4.9% below fair value
You pay
$16.92
Bear
$14.85
Fair
$17.80
Bull
$20.49
Bear
$14.85
-12.2%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$17.80
+5.2%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$20.49
+21.1%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
16.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
6.5%
vs 7.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$26.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
32%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $17.80 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 103% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $26.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions