IIIV
i3 Verticals, Inc.
$20.88
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 6.0% above fair value
You pay
$20.88
Bear
$16.45
Fair
$19.69
Bull
$22.65
Bear
$16.45
-21.2%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$19.69
-5.7%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$22.65
+8.5%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
22.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.5%
vs 7.3% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $28.00 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $19.69 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 103% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $28.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 40% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions