IFNNF
Infineon Technologies AG
$54.14
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 125.4% above fair value
You pay
$54.14
Bear
$18.02
Fair
$24.02
Bull
$30.03
Bear
$18.02
-66.7%
$1.50 × 12x
Fair
$24.02
-55.6%
$1.50 × 16x
Bull
$30.03
-44.5%
$1.50 × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
1.5$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.50)
Implied Market Multiple
36.1x
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $1.50 at a 16x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $24.02 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 10.6x.
Warnings
Price-to-book value of 10.6x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1204 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing