IFF
International Flavors & Fragrances Inc.
$75.28
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 128.8% above fair value
You pay
$75.28
Bear
$23.60
Fair
$32.90
Bull
$44.06
Bear
$23.60
-68.7%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$32.90
-56.3%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$44.06
-41.5%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (4% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
42.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $88.13 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $32.90 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $88.13 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 90% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions