IFF
International Flavors & Fragrances Inc.
$78.20
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 137.1% above fair value
You pay
$78.20
Bear
$23.65
Fair
$32.98
Bull
$44.16
Bear
$23.65
-69.8%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$32.98
-57.8%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$44.16
-43.5%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (4% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
43.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
19.2%
vs 4.1% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $88.38 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $32.98 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $88.38 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 90% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions