IESC
IES Holdings, Inc.
$220.75
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 6.0% below fair value
You pay
$220.75
Bear
$124.79
Fair
$234.82
Bull
$377.72
Bear
$124.79
-43.5%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$234.82
+6.4%
22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$377.72
+71.1%
28% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
21.7%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (22% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
41.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
20.9%
vs 21.7% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 22% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $234.82 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions