IESC
IES Holdings, Inc.
$626.07
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 32.7% above fair value
You pay
$626.07
Bear
$250.64
Fair
$471.64
Bull
$758.63
Bear
$250.64
-60.0%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$471.64
-24.7%
22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$758.63
+21.2%
28% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (22% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
59.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
25.6%
vs 21.7% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 22% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $471.64 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions