IESC
IES Holdings, Inc.
$322.57
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 35.9% above fair value
You pay
$322.57
Bear
$126.14
Fair
$237.37
Bull
$381.81
Bear
$126.14
-60.9%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$237.37
-26.4%
22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$381.81
+18.4%
28% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
21.7%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (22% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
60.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
25.9%
vs 21.7% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 22% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $237.37 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions