IDXX
IDEXX Laboratories, Inc.
$504.70
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 98.0% above fair value
You pay
$504.70
Bear
$186.16
Fair
$254.96
Bull
$322.87
Bear
$186.16
-63.1%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$254.96
-49.5%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$322.87
-36.0%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
10.4%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
37.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
19.4%
vs 10.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (23 analysts)
$665.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
62%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $254.96 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $665.00 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 62% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions