IDXX
IDEXX Laboratories, Inc.
$559.37
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 34.1% above fair value
You pay
$559.37
Bear
$279.22
Fair
$417.19
Bull
$563.52
Bear
$279.22
-50.1%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$417.19
-25.4%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$563.52
+0.7%
17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
42.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $747.50 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $417.19 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $747.50 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 59% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions