IDA
IDACORP, Inc.
$138.30
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 46.5% above fair value
You pay
$138.30
Bear
$82.60
Fair
$94.40
Bull
$106.20
Bear
$82.60
-40.3%
$5.90 × 14x P/E
Fair
$94.40
-31.7%
$5.90 × 16x P/E
Bull
$106.20
-23.2%
$5.90 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
5.9$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
23.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$155.20
Divergence from AlphaVal
39%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.90, the base-case value is $94.40 per share. DDM cross-check: $74.36.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $74.36 (below our primary estimate by 21%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $155.20 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples