ICUI ICU Medical, Inc.
$157.26
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 897.1% above fair value

You pay $157.26
Bear $12.62
Fair $15.77
Bull $18.93
Bear $12.62 -92.0% $0.88 × 14x P/E
Fair $15.77 -90.0% $0.88 × 18x P/E
Bull $18.93 -88.0% $0.88 × 22x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.9x
0.88$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 178.7x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (12 analysts) $186.40
Divergence from AlphaVal 92%

Summary

Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.88, the base-case value is $15.77 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 2893%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $186.40 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 92% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples