ICUI ICU Medical, Inc.
$133.31
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 47.6% above fair value

You pay $133.31
Bear $72.28
Fair $90.35
Bull $108.42
Bear $72.28 -45.8% $4.02 × 14x P/E
Fair $90.35 -32.2% $4.02 × 18x P/E
Bull $108.42 -18.7% $4.02 × 22x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 33.2x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $163.50 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $90.35 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 13573%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $163.50 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples