ICTEF
International Container Terminal Services, Inc.
$13.74
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 21.8% below fair value
You pay
$13.74
Bear
$10.36
Fair
$17.57
Bull
$25.61
Bear
$10.36
-24.6%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$17.57
+27.9%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$25.61
+86.5%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
25.4x
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $17.57 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions