ICTEF
International Container Terminal Services, Inc.
$16.27
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 6.7% below fair value
You pay
$16.27
Bear
$10.28
Fair
$17.45
Bull
$25.44
Bear
$10.28
-36.8%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$17.45
+7.2%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$25.44
+56.3%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
29.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.2%
vs 15.0% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $17.45 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions