ICLR
ICON Public Limited Company
$116.78
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 19.2% below fair value
You pay
$116.78
Bear
$144.54
Fair
$144.54
Bull
$157.04
Bear
$144.54
+23.8%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$144.54
+23.8%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$157.04
+34.5%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
11.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $148.89 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $144.54 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions