ICLR
ICON Public Limited Company
$185.43
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 14.9% above fair value
You pay
$185.43
Bear
$129.60
Fair
$161.45
Bull
$189.55
Bear
$129.60
-30.1%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$161.45
-12.9%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$189.55
+2.2%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
5.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
17.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.5%
vs 5.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (30 analysts)
$173.82
Divergence from AlphaVal
7%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $161.45 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 44% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions