ICFI
ICF International, Inc.
$76.83
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 19.7% above fair value
You pay
$76.83
Bear
$50.39
Fair
$64.21
Bull
$76.15
Bear
$50.39
-34.4%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$64.21
-16.4%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$76.15
-0.9%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
18.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.8%
vs 5.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $90.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $64.21 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $90.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 36% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions