ICFI
ICF International, Inc.
$76.35
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 12.4% above fair value
You pay
$76.35
Bear
$53.32
Fair
$67.94
Bull
$80.58
Bear
$53.32
-30.2%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$67.94
-11.0%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$80.58
+5.5%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
18.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.7%
vs 5.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $108.67 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $67.94 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $108.67 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions