ICFI
ICF International, Inc.
$94.40
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 47.3% above fair value
You pay
$94.40
Bear
$50.74
Fair
$64.10
Bull
$75.64
Bear
$50.74
-46.3%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$64.10
-32.1%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$75.64
-19.9%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
5.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
19.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.9%
vs 5.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$110.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
42%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $64.10 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $110.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 42% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions