ICFI
ICF International, Inc.
$68.93
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 3.3% above fair value
You pay
$68.93
Bear
$52.35
Fair
$66.71
Bull
$79.11
Bear
$52.35
-24.0%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$66.71
-3.2%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$79.11
+14.8%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
17.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $102.50 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $66.71 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $102.50 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions