ICE
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
$152.97
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 42.5% above fair value
You pay
$152.97
Bear
$99.53
Fair
$107.33
Bull
$120.30
Bear
$99.53
-34.9%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$107.33
-29.8%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$120.30
-21.4%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (4% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
25.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $196.43 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $107.33 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $196.43 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 65% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions