ICE
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
$161.26
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 89.4% above fair value
You pay
$161.26
Bear
$78.42
Fair
$85.16
Bull
$95.22
Bear
$78.42
-51.4%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$85.16
-47.2%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$95.22
-41.0%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (4% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
22.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.7%
vs 3.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (36 analysts)
$184.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
54%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 4% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $85.16 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $184.50 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions