ICE
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
$157.69
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 82.0% above fair value
You pay
$157.69
Bear
$78.42
Fair
$86.67
Bull
$97.36
Bear
$78.42
-50.3%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$86.67
-45.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$97.36
-38.3%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
4.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (4% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
22.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.5%
vs 4.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (36 analysts)
$183.89
Divergence from AlphaVal
53%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 4% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $86.67 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $183.89 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions