ICE
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
$138.67
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 36.9% above fair value
You pay
$138.67
Bear
$98.94
Fair
$101.31
Bull
$112.00
Bear
$98.94
-28.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$101.31
-26.9%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$112.00
-19.2%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
23.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.9%
vs 3.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $184.50 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $101.31 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $184.50 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 64% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions