IBTA
Ibotta, Inc.
$32.30
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 35.8% below fair value
You pay
$32.30
Bear
$34.55
Fair
$50.28
Bull
$67.57
Bear
$34.55
+7.0%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$50.28
+55.7%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$67.57
+109.2%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
16.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
6.6%
vs 14.5% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $37.67 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $50.28 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 1235% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $37.67 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 42% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions