IBTA
Ibotta, Inc.
$32.22
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 37.2% below fair value
You pay
$32.22
Bear
$35.24
Fair
$51.30
Bull
$68.99
Bear
$35.24
+9.4%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$51.30
+59.2%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$68.99
+114.1%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
16.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $42.50 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $51.30 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 1235% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $42.50 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 26% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions