IBTA
Ibotta, Inc.
$48.13
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 20.3% below fair value
You pay
$48.13
Bear
$41.82
Fair
$60.37
Bull
$80.65
Bear
$41.82
-13.1%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$60.37
+25.4%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$80.65
+67.6%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
14.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
22.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.8%
vs 14.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$39.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
54%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $60.37 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 1235% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $39.25 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 54% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions