IBTA
Ibotta, Inc.
$38.39
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 30.4% below fair value
You pay
$38.39
Bear
$38.22
Fair
$55.18
Bull
$73.71
Bear
$38.22
-0.4%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$55.18
+43.7%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$73.71
+92.0%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
14.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
19.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.6%
vs 14.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$39.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
41%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $55.18 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 1235% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $39.25 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 41% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions