IAS
Integral Ad Science Holding Corp.
$10.34
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 20.4% above fair value
You pay
$10.34
Bear
$4.85
Fair
$8.59
Bull
$13.24
Bear
$4.85
-53.1%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$8.59
-17.0%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$13.24
+28.1%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
19.9%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
47.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
22.5%
vs 20.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$14.29
Divergence from AlphaVal
40%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $8.59 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 158% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $14.29 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 40% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions