IAS
Integral Ad Science Holding Corp.
$10.34
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 14.4% above fair value
You pay
$10.34
Bear
$5.11
Fair
$9.04
Bull
$13.93
Bear
$5.11
-50.6%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$9.04
-12.6%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$13.93
+34.7%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
52.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $14.29 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $9.04 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 158% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $14.29 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 46% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions