HZO
MarineMax, Inc.
$34.92
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.8% above fair value
You pay
$34.92
Bear
$23.79
Fair
$34.66
Bull
$44.00
Bear
$23.79
-31.9%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$34.66
-0.8%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$44.00
+26.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
30%
Implied Market Multiple
13.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $32.67 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $34.66 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions