HZO
MarineMax, Inc.
$52.37
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 1.6% below fair value
You pay
$52.37
Bear
$53.22
Fair
$53.22
Bull
$59.85
Bear
$53.22
+1.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$53.22
+1.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$59.85
+14.3%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
28%
Implied Market Multiple
11.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
2.9%
vs 3.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$48.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
10%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $53.22 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions