HZO
MarineMax, Inc.
$35.27
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 10.7% above fair value
You pay
$35.27
Bear
$25.54
Fair
$31.85
Bull
$39.46
Bear
$25.54
-27.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$31.85
-9.7%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$39.46
+11.9%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (4% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
29%
Implied Market Multiple
13.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
5.0%
vs 4.1% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $37.00 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $31.85 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions