HXL
Hexcel Corporation
$84.96
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 46.7% below fair value
You pay
$84.96
Bear
$87.29
Fair
$159.36
Bull
$245.95
Bear
$87.29
+2.7%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$159.36
+87.6%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$245.95
+189.5%
24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
18.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
22.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.5%
vs 18.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (36 analysts)
$111.29
Divergence from AlphaVal
43%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 18% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $159.36 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $111.29 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 43% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions