HWKN
Hawkins, Inc.
$153.14
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 162.5% above fair value
You pay
$153.14
Bear
$45.37
Fair
$58.34
Bull
$70.08
Bear
$45.37
-70.4%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$58.34
-61.9%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$70.08
-54.2%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
40.1x
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $58.34 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions