HWKN
Hawkins, Inc.
$129.13
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 110.6% above fair value
You pay
$129.13
Bear
$47.80
Fair
$61.31
Bull
$73.54
Bear
$47.80
-63.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$61.31
-52.5%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$73.54
-43.0%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
32.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.6%
vs 6.9% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $61.31 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions