HWKN
Hawkins, Inc.
$143.17
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 145.9% above fair value
You pay
$143.17
Bear
$45.29
Fair
$58.23
Bull
$69.95
Bear
$45.29
-68.4%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$58.23
-59.3%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$69.95
-51.1%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
37.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
17.5%
vs 6.9% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $58.23 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions