HWC
Hancock Whitney Corporation
$77.29
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 11.4% below fair value
You pay
$77.29
Bear
$61.09
Fair
$87.27
Bull
$113.45
Bear
$61.09
-21.0%
ROTCE 10.5% → 1.16x TBV
Fair
$87.27
+12.9%
ROTCE 14.0% → 1.79x TBV
Bull
$113.45
+46.8%
ROTCE 16.1% → 2.17x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (14.0%) vs. cost of equity (9.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.81x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $79.80 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $87.27 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly