HVT Haverty Furniture Companies, Inc.
$22.35
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 56.5% below fair value

You pay $22.35
Bear $44.98
Fair $51.41
Bull $57.83
Bear $44.98 +101.3% $3.36 × 14x P/E
Fair $51.41 +130.0% $3.36 × 16x P/E
Bull $57.83 +158.8% $3.36 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 6.7x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $42.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $51.41 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 182%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 110% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $42.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 28% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples