HVT
Haverty Furniture Companies, Inc.
$28.56
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 46.9% below fair value
You pay
$28.56
Bear
$47.04
Fair
$53.76
Bull
$60.48
Bear
$47.04
+64.7%
$3.36 × 14x P/E
Fair
$53.76
+88.2%
$3.36 × 16x P/E
Bull
$60.48
+111.8%
$3.36 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
3.36$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
8.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$42.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
28%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.36, the base-case value is $53.76 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 182%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 111% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $42.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 28% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples