HVT Haverty Furniture Companies, Inc.
$28.56
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 46.9% below fair value

You pay $28.56
Bear $47.04
Fair $53.76
Bull $60.48
Bear $47.04 +64.7% $3.36 × 14x P/E
Fair $53.76 +88.2% $3.36 × 16x P/E
Bull $60.48 +111.8% $3.36 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
3.36$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 8.5x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (6 analysts) $42.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 28%

Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.36, the base-case value is $53.76 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 182%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 111% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $42.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 28% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples