HUT
Hut 8 Corp.
$72.09
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 2366.8% above fair value
Bear
$2.92
-95.9%
ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair
$2.92
-95.9%
ROTCE -20.7% → 0.30x TBV
Bull
$2.92
-95.9%
ROTCE -23.8% → 0.30x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
-20.7%
14.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (-20.7%) vs. cost of equity (14.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
7.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$162.08
Divergence from AlphaVal
98%
Summary
With ROTCE of -20.7% vs. 14.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $9.74 tangible book, implying $2.92 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (-20.7%) is below the minimum investors require (14.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $162.08 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 98% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 49% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly