HUT
Hut 8 Corp.
$93.55
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 2824.0% above fair value
Bear
$3.20
-96.6%
ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair
$3.20
-96.6%
ROTCE -18.8% → 0.30x TBV
Bull
$3.20
-96.6%
ROTCE -21.7% → 0.30x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
-18.8%
14.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (-18.8%) vs. cost of equity (14.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
8.77x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$164.30
Divergence from AlphaVal
98%
Summary
With ROTCE of -18.8% vs. 14.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $10.66 tangible book, implying $3.20 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (-18.8%) is below the minimum investors require (14.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $164.30 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 98% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly