HURN
Huron Consulting Group Inc.
$90.48
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 36.9% below fair value
You pay
$90.48
Bear
$105.51
Fair
$143.44
Bull
$178.97
Bear
$105.51
+16.6%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$143.44
+58.5%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$178.97
+97.8%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
13.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
3.6%
vs 8.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $157.50 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $143.44 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 44% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions