HURN
Huron Consulting Group Inc.
$157.31
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 9.6% below fair value
You pay
$157.31
Bear
$129.61
Fair
$174.09
Bull
$215.75
Bear
$129.61
-17.6%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$174.09
+10.7%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$215.75
+37.1%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
8.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
17.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.1%
vs 8.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$176.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
1%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $174.09 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 44% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions