AlphaMadera

HUN Huntsman Corporation

$9.47

Stable Earnings Power 40%

P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Moderate · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 35.7% below fair value

You pay $9.47

Bear $11.78

Fair $14.73

Bull $17.68

Bear $11.78 +24.4% $0.98 × 12x P/E

Fair $14.73 +55.5% $0.98 × 15x P/E

Bull $17.68 +86.7% $0.98 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

15.0x

Adjusted EPS

0.98$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 9.6x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (33 analysts) $12.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 23%

Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.98, the base-case value is $14.73 per share.

Warnings

⚠ This stock is 41% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples