HUN Huntsman Corporation
$11.13
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 53.4% below fair value

You pay $11.13
Bear $19.13
Fair $23.90
Bull $28.68
Bear $19.13 +71.8% $1.89 × 12x P/E
Fair $23.90 +114.8% $1.89 × 15x P/E
Bull $28.68 +157.7% $1.89 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 5.9x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $13.60 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $23.90 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $13.60 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 108% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples