HUN
Huntsman Corporation
$8.56
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 41.9% below fair value
You pay
$8.56
Bear
$11.78
Fair
$14.73
Bull
$17.68
Bear
$11.78
+37.7%
$0.98 × 12x P/E
Fair
$14.73
+72.1%
$0.98 × 15x P/E
Bull
$17.68
+106.5%
$0.98 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
0.98$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
8.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (33 analysts)
$11.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
34%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.98, the base-case value is $14.73 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $11.00 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 34% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 47% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples