HUBG
Hub Group, Inc.
$47.69
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 40.7% above fair value
You pay
$47.69
Bear
$27.11
Fair
$33.89
Bull
$40.67
Bear
$27.11
-43.2%
$2.05 × 12x P/E
Fair
$33.89
-28.9%
$2.05 × 15x P/E
Bull
$40.67
-14.7%
$2.05 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
23.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $41.33 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $33.89 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $41.33 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples