HUBG
Hub Group, Inc.
$26.31
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 30.7% below fair value
You pay
$26.31
Bear
$30.36
Fair
$37.95
Bull
$45.54
Bear
$30.36
+15.4%
$2.53 × 12x P/E
Fair
$37.95
+44.2%
$2.53 × 15x P/E
Bull
$45.54
+73.1%
$2.53 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
2.53$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
10.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (31 analysts)
$33.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
12%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.53, the base-case value is $37.95 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 49%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples