HUBG
Hub Group, Inc.
$49.28
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 47.1% above fair value
You pay
$49.28
Bear
$26.79
Fair
$33.49
Bull
$40.19
Bear
$26.79
-45.6%
$2.05 × 12x P/E
Fair
$33.49
-32.0%
$2.05 × 15x P/E
Bull
$40.19
-18.4%
$2.05 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $40.00 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $33.49 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples