HUBB
Hubbell Incorporated
$490.94
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 9.8% above fair value
You pay
$490.94
Bear
$283.78
Fair
$447.18
Bull
$622.76
Bear
$283.78
-42.2%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$447.18
-8.9%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$622.76
+26.9%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
33.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.7%
vs 13.5% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $551.33 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $447.18 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $551.33 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 25% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions