HUBB
Hubbell Incorporated
$459.66
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 4.5% above fair value
You pay
$459.66
Bear
$279.93
Fair
$439.73
Bull
$611.44
Bear
$279.93
-39.1%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$439.73
-4.3%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$611.44
+33.0%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
13.5%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
29.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.1%
vs 13.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$546.60
Divergence from AlphaVal
20%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $439.73 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions