HUBB
Hubbell Incorporated
$475.01
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 6.6% above fair value
You pay
$475.01
Bear
$282.85
Fair
$445.70
Bull
$620.70
Bear
$282.85
-40.5%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$445.70
-6.2%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$620.70
+30.7%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
32.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $545.43 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $445.70 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions