HTHT
H World Group Limited
$46.58
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 56.9% below fair value
You pay
$46.58
Bear
$64.65
Fair
$108.04
Bull
$156.70
Bear
$64.65
+38.8%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$108.04
+132.0%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$156.70
+236.4%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
15.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
5.4%
vs 15.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$50.56
Divergence from AlphaVal
114%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $108.04 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $50.56 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 114% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1498 USD per CNY.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions