HTHT
H World Group Limited
$44.79
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 52.5% below fair value
You pay
$44.79
Bear
$55.85
Fair
$94.21
Bull
$137.48
Bear
$55.85
+24.7%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$94.21
+110.3%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$137.48
+207.0%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
15.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $62.40 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $94.21 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $62.40 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 68% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1474 USD per CNY.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions