HTH
Hilltop Holdings Inc.
$36.38
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 8.1% below fair value
You pay
$36.38
Bear
$31.68
Fair
$39.60
Bull
$47.52
Bear
$31.68
-12.9%
$2.64 × 12x P/E
Fair
$39.60
+8.9%
$2.64 × 15x P/E
Bull
$47.52
+30.6%
$2.64 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
2.64$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$42.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
6%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.64, the base-case value is $39.60 per share. DDM cross-check: $86.88.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $86.88 (above our primary estimate by 119%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples