HTB HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc.
$48.50
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 8.8% below fair value

You pay $48.50
Bear $32.75
Fair $53.17
Bull $65.42
Bear $32.75 -32.5% ROTCE 8.6% → 0.98x TBV
Fair $53.17 +9.6% ROTCE 11.5% → 1.59x TBV
Bull $65.42 +34.9% ROTCE 13.2% → 1.96x TBV

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (11.5%) vs. cost of equity (8.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.45x

Summary

With ROTCE of 11.5% vs. 8.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.59x on $33.43 tangible book, implying $53.17 per share. DDM cross-check: $1597.87.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $1597.87 (2905% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly