HTB
HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc.
$48.50
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 8.8% below fair value
You pay
$48.50
Bear
$32.75
Fair
$53.17
Bull
$65.42
Bear
$32.75
-32.5%
ROTCE 8.6% → 0.98x TBV
Fair
$53.17
+9.6%
ROTCE 11.5% → 1.59x TBV
Bull
$65.42
+34.9%
ROTCE 13.2% → 1.96x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (11.5%) vs. cost of equity (8.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.45x
Summary
With ROTCE of 11.5% vs. 8.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.59x on $33.43 tangible book, implying $53.17 per share. DDM cross-check: $1597.87.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $1597.87 (2905% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly