HSTM
HealthStream, Inc.
$28.48
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 96.1% above fair value
You pay
$28.48
Bear
$11.62
Fair
$14.52
Bull
$17.42
Bear
$11.62
-59.2%
$0.91 × 10x P/E
Fair
$14.52
-49.0%
$0.91 × 12x P/E
Bull
$17.42
-38.8%
$0.91 × 15x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (12x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
31.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $24.00 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $14.52 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 49%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $24.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples