HSTM
HealthStream, Inc.
$29.74
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 290.0% above fair value
You pay
$29.74
Bear
$6.10
Fair
$7.62
Bull
$9.15
Bear
$6.10
-79.5%
$0.61 × 10x P/E
Fair
$7.62
-74.4%
$0.61 × 12x P/E
Bull
$9.15
-69.2%
$0.61 × 15x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
12.5x
0.61$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (12x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
48.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$27.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
72%
Summary
Applying a 12x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.61, the base-case value is $7.62 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $27.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 72% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples