HSIC
Henry Schein, Inc.
$84.61
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 25.0% above fair value
You pay
$84.61
Bear
$54.14
Fair
$67.69
Bull
$81.23
Bear
$54.14
-36.0%
$3.96 × 12x P/E
Fair
$67.69
-20.0%
$3.96 × 15x P/E
Bull
$81.23
-4.0%
$3.96 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $87.13 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $67.69 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $87.13 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples