HSIC
Henry Schein, Inc.
$86.38
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 76.1% above fair value
You pay
$86.38
Bear
$39.24
Fair
$49.05
Bull
$58.86
Bear
$39.24
-54.6%
$3.27 × 12x P/E
Fair
$49.05
-43.2%
$3.27 × 15x P/E
Bull
$58.86
-31.9%
$3.27 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
3.27$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
26.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (34 analysts)
$92.30
Divergence from AlphaVal
47%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.27, the base-case value is $49.05 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $92.30 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples