HRMY
Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.
$30.15
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 77.1% below fair value
You pay
$30.15
Bear
$92.45
Fair
$131.44
Bull
$172.47
Bear
$92.45
+206.6%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$131.44
+336.0%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$172.47
+472.0%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
3.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $46.80 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $131.44 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $46.80 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 226% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions