HRMY
Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.
$41.52
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 65.5% below fair value
You pay
$41.52
Bear
$94.86
Fair
$120.52
Bull
$144.98
Bear
$94.86
+128.5%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$120.52
+190.3%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$144.98
+249.2%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
8.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
5.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-8.7%
vs 8.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$48.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
148%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $120.52 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $48.50 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 148% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions