HRMY
Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.
$33.77
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 75.4% below fair value
You pay
$33.77
Bear
$94.53
Fair
$137.42
Bull
$183.38
Bear
$94.53
+179.9%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$137.42
+306.9%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$183.38
+443.0%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
4.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-12.6%
vs 13.4% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $44.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $137.42 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $44.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 265% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions