HRMY
Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.
$36.83
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 69.6% below fair value
You pay
$36.83
Bear
$94.97
Fair
$121.29
Bull
$146.50
Bear
$94.97
+157.9%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$121.29
+229.3%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$146.50
+297.8%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
5.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-11.1%
vs 9.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$49.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
148%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $121.29 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $49.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 148% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions