HRI
Herc Holdings Inc.
$148.94
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 12.3% below fair value
You pay
$148.94
Bear
$135.80
Fair
$169.75
Bull
$203.70
Bear
$135.80
-8.8%
$7.40 × 18x P/E
Fair
$169.75
+14.0%
$7.40 × 22x P/E
Bull
$203.70
+36.8%
$7.40 × 27x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $179.50 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $169.75 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 23025%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 8750% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples