HRB H&R Block, Inc.
$44.88
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 48.2% below fair value

You pay $44.88
Bear $69.36
Fair $86.70
Bull $104.04
Bear $69.36 +54.5% $5.78 × 12x P/E
Fair $86.70 +93.2% $5.78 × 15x P/E
Bull $104.04 +131.8% $5.78 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
5.78$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 7.8x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (16 analysts) $46.50
Divergence from AlphaVal 86%

Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.78, the base-case value is $86.70 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $46.50 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 86% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples