HRB H&R Block, Inc.
$38.89
Stable Earnings Power 65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 36.7% below fair value

You pay $38.89
Bear $49.15
Fair $61.43
Bull $73.72
Bear $49.15 +26.4% $4.55 × 12x P/E
Fair $61.43 +58.0% $4.55 × 15x P/E
Bull $73.72 +89.6% $4.55 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 8.5x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $41.00 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $61.43 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $41.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 66% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples