HPE
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company
$37.58
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 45.8% above fair value
You pay
$37.58
Bear
$20.62
Fair
$25.77
Bull
$30.92
Bear
$20.62
-45.1%
$1.54 × 12x P/E
Fair
$25.77
-31.4%
$1.54 × 15x P/E
Bull
$30.92
-17.7%
$1.54 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $32.00 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $25.77 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $10.30 (below our primary estimate by 55%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $32.00 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples