HPE
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company
$69.19
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 199.5% above fair value
You pay
$69.19
Bear
$18.48
Fair
$23.10
Bull
$27.72
Bear
$18.48
-73.3%
$1.54 × 12x P/E
Fair
$23.10
-66.6%
$1.54 × 15x P/E
Bull
$27.72
-59.9%
$1.54 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.54$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
44.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (40 analysts)
$70.35
Divergence from AlphaVal
67%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.54, the base-case value is $23.10 per share. DDM cross-check: $13.10.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $13.10 (below our primary estimate by 43%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $70.35 (from 40 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples