HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company
$37.58
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 45.8% above fair value

You pay $37.58
Bear $20.62
Fair $25.77
Bull $30.92
Bear $20.62 -45.1% $1.54 × 12x P/E
Fair $25.77 -31.4% $1.54 × 15x P/E
Bull $30.92 -17.7% $1.54 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 24.4x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $32.00 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $25.77 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $10.30 (below our primary estimate by 55%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $32.00 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples