HON Honeywell International Inc.
$226.42
Stable Earnings Power 65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 8.9% below fair value

You pay $226.42
Bear $198.90
Fair $248.62
Bull $298.34
Bear $198.90 -12.2% $16.45 × 12x P/E
Fair $248.62 +9.8% $16.45 × 15x P/E
Bull $298.34 +31.8% $16.45 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 13.8x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $254.00 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $248.62 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $121.03 (below our primary estimate by 51%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples