HON
Honeywell International Inc.
$217.43
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 1.5% below fair value
You pay
$217.43
Bear
$176.64
Fair
$220.80
Bull
$264.96
Bear
$176.64
-18.8%
$14.72 × 12x P/E
Fair
$220.80
+1.5%
$14.72 × 15x P/E
Bull
$264.96
+21.9%
$14.72 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
14.72$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (30 analysts)
$263.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
16%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $14.72, the base-case value is $220.80 per share. DDM cross-check: $69.22.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $69.22 (below our primary estimate by 69%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples