HON
Honeywell International Inc.
$227.92
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 48.5% above fair value
You pay
$227.92
Bear
$122.81
Fair
$153.52
Bull
$184.22
Bear
$122.81
-46.1%
$8.23 × 12x P/E
Fair
$153.52
-32.6%
$8.23 × 15x P/E
Bull
$184.22
-19.2%
$8.23 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
27.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $243.83 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $153.52 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $243.83 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples