HON
Honeywell International Inc.
$206.13
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 6.6% below fair value
You pay
$206.13
Bear
$176.64
Fair
$220.80
Bull
$264.96
Bear
$176.64
-14.3%
$14.72 × 12x P/E
Fair
$220.80
+7.1%
$14.72 × 15x P/E
Bull
$264.96
+28.5%
$14.72 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
14.72$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (30 analysts)
$259.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
15%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $14.72, the base-case value is $220.80 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples