HOLX
Hologic, Inc.
$76.01
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 24.7% above fair value
You pay
$76.01
Bear
$48.78
Fair
$60.97
Bull
$73.15
Bear
$48.78
-35.8%
$3.56 × 12x P/E
Fair
$60.97
-19.8%
$3.56 × 15x P/E
Bull
$73.15
-3.8%
$3.56 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $78.69 from 42 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $60.97 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 43%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $78.69 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples