HOLX
Hologic, Inc.
$76.01
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 49.2% above fair value
You pay
$76.01
Bear
$40.75
Fair
$50.94
Bull
$61.13
Bear
$40.75
-46.4%
$3.40 × 12x P/E
Fair
$50.94
-33.0%
$3.40 × 15x P/E
Bull
$61.13
-19.6%
$3.40 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
3.4$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
22.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (42 analysts)
$78.69
Divergence from AlphaVal
35%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.40, the base-case value is $50.94 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 36%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $78.69 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples