HNRG
Hallador Energy Company
$13.65
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 50.2% below fair value
You pay
$13.65
Bear
$22.43
Fair
$27.42
Bull
$32.40
Bear
$22.43
+64.3%
$0.96 × 23x P/E
Fair
$27.42
+100.8%
$0.96 × 29x P/E
Bull
$32.40
+137.4%
$0.96 × 34x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
28.6x
0.96$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (29x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$27.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
2%
Summary
Applying a 29x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.96, the base-case value is $27.42 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples