HLX
Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc.
$10.60
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 2.1% below fair value
You pay
$10.60
Bear
$5.95
Fair
$10.83
Bull
$16.97
Bear
$5.95
-43.9%
FCF $106M × 10x
Fair
$10.83
+2.2%
FCF $137M × 13x
Bull
$16.97
+60.1%
FCF $168M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$14.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
23%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $10.83 per share. Range: $5.95 (bear) to $16.97 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential