HLX
Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc.
$9.22
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 12.4% below fair value
You pay
$9.22
Bear
$5.71
Fair
$10.53
Bull
$16.59
Bear
$5.71
-38.1%
FCF $93M × 10x
Fair
$10.53
+14.2%
FCF $120M × 13x
Bull
$16.59
+80.0%
FCF $147M × 16x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $14.00 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $10.53 per share.
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $14.00 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 33% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential