HLT
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
$321.85
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 42.5% above fair value
You pay
$321.85
Bear
$133.00
Fair
$225.82
Bull
$325.38
Bear
$133.00
-58.7%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$225.82
-29.8%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$325.38
+1.1%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
13.5%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
37.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
17.4%
vs 13.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (49 analysts)
$347.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
35%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $225.82 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $347.67 (from 49 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions