HLT
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
$321.08
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 48.5% above fair value
You pay
$321.08
Bear
$118.20
Fair
$216.17
Bull
$320.36
Bear
$118.20
-63.2%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$216.17
-32.7%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$320.36
-0.2%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
46.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $340.00 from 49 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $216.17 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $340.00 (from 49 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions