HLT
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
$342.26
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 70.3% above fair value
You pay
$342.26
Bear
$122.98
Fair
$200.99
Bull
$282.08
Bear
$122.98
-64.1%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$200.99
-41.3%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$282.08
-17.6%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
39.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
18.1%
vs 12.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (49 analysts)
$350.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
43%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $200.99 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $350.00 (from 49 analysts). Our estimate is 43% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions