HLNE
Hamilton Lane Incorporated
$85.90
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 22.2% below fair value
You pay
$85.90
Bear
$77.33
Fair
$110.46
Bull
$143.60
Bear
$77.33
-10.0%
ROTCE 20.0% → 2.38x TBV
Fair
$110.46
+28.6%
ROTCE 25.0% → 3.45x TBV
Bull
$143.60
+67.2%
ROTCE 30.0% → 3.86x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (27.2%) vs. cost of equity (10.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
5.21x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $138.40 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $110.46 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $131.19 (27% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $138.40 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 25% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly