HLNE
Hamilton Lane Incorporated
$90.32
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 19.1% below fair value
You pay
$90.32
Bear
$78.11
Fair
$111.58
Bull
$145.05
Bear
$78.11
-13.5%
ROTCE 20.0% → 2.33x TBV
Fair
$111.58
+23.5%
ROTCE 25.0% → 3.39x TBV
Bull
$145.05
+60.6%
ROTCE 30.0% → 3.79x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (27.2%) vs. cost of equity (10.9%)
Implied Market Multiple
5.48x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $144.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $111.58 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $144.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly