HLNE Hamilton Lane Incorporated
$90.32
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 19.1% below fair value

You pay $90.32
Bear $78.11
Fair $111.58
Bull $145.05
Bear $78.11 -13.5% ROTCE 20.0% → 2.33x TBV
Fair $111.58 +23.5% ROTCE 25.0% → 3.39x TBV
Bull $145.05 +60.6% ROTCE 30.0% → 3.79x TBV

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (27.2%) vs. cost of equity (10.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 5.48x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $144.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $111.58 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $144.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly