HLMN
Hillman Solutions Corp.
$6.97
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 439.5% above fair value
You pay
$6.97
Bear
$0.20
Fair
$1.29
Bull
$2.31
Bear
$0.20
-97.2%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$1.29
-81.5%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$2.31
-66.9%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
8.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
33.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
17.9%
vs 8.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (7 analysts)
$13.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
90%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $1.29 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 35% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $13.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 90% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions