HLMN
Hillman Solutions Corp.
$7.36
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 162.9% above fair value
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$2.80
-62.0%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$0.00
-100.0%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
92.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $14.00 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $2.80 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 35% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $14.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions